A comprehensive monetary analysis of the U.S. during COVID-19

Kirill KRUPENIN, Kyle WU, Katherine LIU, Matthew BACON, Gavin McELHENNON, Elizabeth QIAO

Abstract


Abstract. As a response to the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve implemented one of the most expansionary monetary policies in its history, renewing asset purchases under quantitative easing and supporting the economy using a wide range of other tools. In this paper, the authors provide an overview of the changes in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve from February 26th, 2020 to April 7th, 2021 as well as an overview of the main actions taken by the Federal Reserve over the same period. The authors then analyze the impact of the activity of the Federal Reserve on the economy from the monetary perspective. In particular, the authors examine the expansion of the balance sheet of U.S. commercial banks, analyze credit counterparts of broad money, and conduct the golden growth rate analysis for broad money supply growth. The authors conclude the paper by analyzing changes in inflation expectations and Treasury yields.

Keywords. Money supply; Credit; Money multipliers; Monetary policy.

JEL. E50; E51; E52.

Keywords


Money supply; Credit; Money multipliers; Monetary policy.

Full Text:


References


Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (n.d.). Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States – H.8 [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 15). Coordinate Central Bank Action to Enhance the Provision of U.S. Dollar Liquidity [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 20). Coordinated central bank action to further enhance the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (n.d.). Factors Affecting Reserve Balances – H.4.1 [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, August 27). Federal Open Market Committee announces approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 15). Federal Reserve Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, April 27). Federal Reserve announces an expansion of the scope and duration of the Municipal Liquidity Facility [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 17). Federal Reserve announces establishment of a Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) to support the flow of credit to households and businesses [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 17). Federal Reserve announces establishment of a Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) to support the credit needs of households and businesses [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 31). Federal Reserve announces establishment of a temporary FIMA Repo Facility to help support the smooth functioning of financial markets [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 23). Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, April 16). Federal Reserve announces its Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility is fully operational and available to provide liquidity to eligible financial institutions [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2021, March 25). Federal Reserve announces temporary and additional restrictions on bank holding company dividends and share repurchases currently in place will end for most firms after June 30, based on results from upcoming stress test [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 19). Federal Reserve announces the establishment of temporary U.S. dollar liquidity arrangements with other central banks [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, December 16). Federal Reserve announces the extension of its temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines and the temporary repurchase agreement facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA repo facility) through September 30, 2021 [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, October 30). Federal Reserve Board adjusts terms of Main Street Lending Program to better target support to smaller businesses that employ millions of workers and are facing continued revenue shortfall due to the pandemic [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, June 03). Federal Reserve Board announces an expansion in the number and type of entities eligible to directly use its Municipal Liquidity Facility [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, July 28). Federal Reserve Board announces an extension through December 31 of its lending facilities that were scheduled to expire on or around September 30 [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, November 30). Federal Reserve Board announces extension through March 31, 2021, for several of its lending facilities that were generally scheduled to expire on or around December 31 [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, April 24). Federal Reserve Board announces interim final rule to delete the six-per-month limit on convenient transfers from the “savings deposit” definition in Regulation D [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, April 30). Federal Reserve Board announces it is expanding the scope and eligibility for the Main Street Lending Program [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, September 30). Federal Reserve Board announces it will extend for an additional quarter several measures to ensure that large banks maintain a high level of capital resilience [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2021, March 08). Federal Reserve Board announces it will extend its Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, or PPPLF, by three months to June 30, 2021 [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, April 23). Federal Reserve Board announces temporary actions aimed at increasing the availability of intraday credit extended by Federal Reserve Banks [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, April 01). Federal Reserve Board announces temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio rule to ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the coronavirus and increase banking organizations’ ability to provide credit to households and businesses [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2021, March 19). Federal Reserve Board announces that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31 [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, July 29). Federal Reserve Board announces the extensions of its temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines and the temporary repurchase agreement facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA repo facility) through March 31, 2021 [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, June 15). Federal Reserve Board announces updates to Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), which will begin buying a broad and diversified portfolio of corporate bonds to support market liquidity and the availability of credit for large employers [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 18). Federal Reserve Board broadens program of support for the flow of credit to households and businesses by establishing a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, June 08). Federal Reserve Board expands its Main Street Lending Program to allow more small and medium-sized usinesses to be able to receive support [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 20). Federal Reserve Board expands its program of support for flow of credit to the economy by taking steps to enhance liquidity and functioning of crucial state and municipal money markets [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, October 01). Federal Reserve Board extends temporary actions aimed at increasing the availability of intraday credit extended by Federal Reserve Banks [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, July 17). Federal Reserve Board modifies Main Street Lending Program to provide greater access to credit for nonprofit organizations such as educational institutions, hospitals, and social service organizations [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, June 25). Federal Reserve Board releases results of stress tests for 2020 and additional sensitivity analyses conducted in light of the coronavirus event [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, April 30). Federal Reserve expands access to its Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility (PPPLF) to additional lenders, and expands the collateral that can be pledged [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, December 29). Federal Reserve extends termination date of Main Street Lending Program facilities to January 8, 2021 to allow more time to process and fund loans that were submitted to Main Street lender portal on or before December 14, 2020 [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 03). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 15). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, March 23). Federal Reserve issues FOMC Statement [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, April 29). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, June 10). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, July 29). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, September 16). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, November 05). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, December 16). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2021, January 27). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2021, March 17). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2020, April 09). Federal Reserve takes additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (n.d.). Money Stock Measures – H.6 [Press Release]. [Retrieved from].

Center for Financial Stability. (n.d.). CFS Divisia Components. [Retrieved from].

Center for Financial Stability. (n.d.). CFS Divisia Release. [Retrieved from].

Economist Intelligence Unit. (n.d.). United States of America Consumer prices

(% change pa; av). [Retrieved from].

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (n.d.). Central Bank Liquidity Swap Operations. [Retrieved from].

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (n.d.). 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate.

[Retrieved from].

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (n.d.). 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate. [Retrieved from].

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (n.d.). 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity. [Retrieved from].

Greenwood, J., & Hanke, S. H. (2020, March 09). How the Federal Reserve Can Ease the Coronavirus Panic. [Retrieved from].

International Monetary Fund. (n.d.). Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFS). [Retrieved from].

Parker, K. (2020, March 25). The 2020 stock market crash: Timeline, what caused it and more. [Retrieved from].

Li, Y. (2020, March 23). This was the fastest 30% sell-off ever, exceeding the pace of declines during the Great Depression. [Retrieved from].

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (n.d.). Gross Domestic Product [GDP]. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [Retrieved from].

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (n.d.). Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1]. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [Retrieved from].

U.S. Department of the Treasury. (n.d.). Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates. [Retrieved from].




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1453/ter.v9i3.2354

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Turkish Economic Review - Turk. Econ. Rev. - TER - www.kspjournals.org

ISSN: 2149-0414

Editor: ter@ksplibrary.org   Secretarial: secretarial@ksplibrary.org   Istanbul - Turkey.

Copyright © KSP Library